Publications

Planning for the Future (2001)

by Dennis Houlihan

Feeling a little older? You’re not alone, so are AFSCME and the public service.

Almost one-half of AFSCME members are 45 years of age or older. Fourteen percent are 54. The public workforce’s share of workers 45+ as a whole is about the same. In contrast, only 30 percent of private-sector workers are 45 years old or older. This is largely the result of two factors: the baby boom and fewer opportunities in the public sector for younger workers due to downsizing and lower turnover rates.

The baby boom began in 1946 and continued through 1964. During this period 76 million people were born, adding demands for public services and supplying millions of workers to meet the demand. Once in the public workforce, many baby boomers have stayed in it. As a result, over 60 percent of AFSCME’s boomers 45 years old or older have been with the same employer more than 10 years.

With baby boomers approaching retirement age, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projects that, on average, 54 percent of workers who are 45+ will leave the workforce over the 10-year period, 1998-2008. Put another way, over this period, given the percent of our members who are over 45, AFSCME can expect to lose over 1 in 4 of our current members through retirement. In addition, as a result of superior pension plans, unionized employees tend to retire earlier than their non-union counterparts, so this figure could be low.

BLS estimates particularly high departure rates for welfare service aides (65 percent) and licensed practical nurses (59 percent). School districts, where 57 percent of AFSCME members are 45+, with almost a quarter over 54, also might experience higher-than-average retirements.

What can we do?

These trends present challenges and opportunities for the union. On the downside, a large number of retirements in a workplace could mean a reduction in union membership and bargaining power if the employer chooses not to fill the vacancies or has difficulty in recruiting new employees. An employer may try to shift work onto the remaining employees, seek to use more technology, contract out, use consultants and contingents, or even abandon the work. Advocates of smaller government may embrace this development as a painless way of reducing government’s core workforce.

Even when younger replacement workers are hired, it may take a special effort to introduce them to the value and role of the union in the workplace. Many will be unfamiliar with the struggles that led to the wages, benefits and working conditions of which they are the beneficiaries.

As retirements increase, employers will be looking for strategies to retain employees. An obvious one is to improve wages and benefits for jobs. Employers also may look more favorably upon voluntary alternative working arrangements including flextime, shorter workweeks and telecommuting. Others may seek to bring back “retired employees” as consultants or under another special status. Training, mentoring and apprentice programs may prepare lower-level employees to step into new higher-level vacancies.

While these approaches may have some appeal, the employer should not unilaterally introduce them. Through collective bargaining and labor/management cooperation activities, the union should be a partner in developing plans to ensure adequate staffing to maintain quality service delivery.

As an important preliminary step, AFSCME locals and councils should review the age dynamics of their membership. Where employers are already involved in successor planning, this could be part of a broader joint effort. Among the questions to consider are:

  • How close is the membership to retirement age by bargaining unit, department, service function or similar unit?
  • What has been the typical retirement pattern?
  • Will a surge in retirements challenge the continued viability of the unit to provide the service?
  • What should be done to ensure the retention or recruitment of the qualified workforce required to keep this work in the public service?
  • Will changes in wages, benefits or other workplace policies be necessary to retain members or recruit replacements?
  • Will retirements create opportunities for upward mobility? Are the necessary training, mentoring and apprentice programs in place to make sure that members are able to take advantage of these opportunities?

From the union’s perspective, employer responses to projected workforce shortages can be positive or negative. Particular attention will be necessary to assure that these strategies do not dilute the strength of the bargaining unit.

Collective bargaining agreements may need to be modified so that “retired” employees hired as consultants or under another status remain covered by the contract. Language also should be reviewed to guarantee that the union has a voice in labor-saving technology solutions. Finally, vigilance will be necessary to prevent workforce shortages from being used as the excuse for contracting out.

For more information, please email the Department of Research and Collective Bargaining Services or call (202) 429-1215.

Print Version